Poll: What Would The Dems Do?

In a recent Gallup Poll, voters were asked about what would happen if the Dems win control of Congress:

What will happen if the Democrats manage to win control of Congress in the Nov. 7 elections? This question is of more than academic interest. Republicans have incorporated assertions about the consequences of a possible Democratic takeover as a significant part of their campaign strategy this fall.

The Oct. 20-22, 2006, USA Today/Gallup poll included questions that investigated these issues in some detail. The questions were designed to tap into Americans' views of what would happen if control of Congress moved to the Democrats -- and also whether that particular consequence would be a good thing or a bad thing.

One question administered to a random half of the sample asked respondents about the likelihood that Democrats would do each of 11 actions if they took over control of Congress. A second question administered to the other random half of the sample asked respondents whether they would approve or disapprove of Democrats doing each of the 11 items in the list.

1. Actions with the greatest potential advantage for the Democrats -- a majority of Americans say it is likely the Democrats would do each, and also say they would approve if Democrats did (listed below in descending order of approval):

* Increasing the minimum wage
* Pass legislation to provide healthcare insurance to those who do not have it
* Allow Americans to buy prescription drugs imported from other countries
* Set a time-table for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq
* Conduct major investigations of the Bush administration

2. Action with potential advantage for the Democrats -- the public approves, but does not think the Democrats are likely to do it:

* Implement all of the anti-terror recommendations made by the 9/11 commission

3. Issues that could potentially hurt the Democrats -- the public disapproves, but thinks the Democrats are likely to do so:

* Reject most of President Bush's nominations for federal judges
* Increase federal income taxes

4. Issues off the table -- the public opposes action on each issue, but also thinks the Democrats will not take action on them:

* Repeal the Patriot Act
* Take steps to make same-sex marriages legal
* Cut back on efforts to fight terrorism

These results suggest several strategies for both sides in the last days of this year's election campaign. The Republicans would have the highest potential payoff from emphasizing that the Democrats, if elected, would increase federal income taxes and reject administration nominations for federal judges. Both of these are actions that the public already believes the Democrats would take, and both are approved by less than a majority.

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