Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Bush trying to recruit more terrorists?





It appears so if this guy's analysis is accurate. He is talking about the fighting going on in Somalia. Its a good refresher course on what its all about there.

(Update below)

The Bush administration views this as another battle in the global war on terrorism. But while US officials have claimed that Al-Qaeda-like fighters are now in Somalia and that Islamist forces are planning to establish a Taliban-like state, it is far from clear whether this assertion is true. Although there are undoubtedly some members of Al-Qaeda and other radical Muslim groups fighting with the Islamists, it remains uncertain how much influence they actually have.

Several articles that I've read indicate that there are both extreme and moderate factions within the ranks of the Islamists. While the goal of the Islamist forces is the establishment of an Islamic state, it would likely not be nearly as radical as Afghanistan under the Taliban. Some prominent Islamist leaders, in fact, such as the moderate cleric Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, have already expressed their willingness to engage with the West. As The Economist pointed out in a recent article, the Islamists "are not uniformly extreme."
The comparison to the Taliban, though superficially attractive, is somewhat misleading. Some elements are abhorrent, ordering rough justice, summary execution of criminals and issuing severe religious decrees. But for the moment they are a minority.

...

Furthermore, since the dominance of the Islamists in Somalia is looking increasingly inevitable, the Bush administration should make the best of it. Even with direct American aid to the anti-Islamist forces, it seems unlikely that the Somali government will ever regain control of the country. While the Bush administration has pursued a strategy of "anyone but the Islamists," (first through aid to warlords and now through tacit support for Somali and Ethiopian forces) this is the wrong approach. The US, along with its European allies, should realize that the war is unwinnable and try instead to reach a power-sharing deal between members of Somalia's Baidoa-based government and the Islamists. By using our influence to negotiate a peace agreement between the two sides, we could encourage the formation of a more moderate government that respects human rights.

While allowing a non-elected government to come to power in Somalia is far from ideal, the alternative is much worse. Continued American support for the disliked Somali government will only increase the popularity of the Islamist groups and further their efforts to gain control of the country. Moreover, American attempts to stabilize the Somali government may lead to a broader and more deadly regional war as Ethiopia, Eritrea, and other regional powers enter the conflict.

Instead, we should cut our losses, negotiate with the Islamists, and make the best of the situation. [links in original] [emphasis mine]

Does any of that sound at all familiar? Just asking.

(read more)

Update: The guy may be right.
As fighting between a Muslim militia in Somalia and an Ethiopian intervention force has intensified over the past few days, Western diplomats and experts warned that U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa — intended to curb Islamic radicalism — may not only be fueling this newest conflict, but also may be making it easier for al-Qaida to gain a foothold in the strategic region.

(read more)

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