What is the Doomsday Clock?
The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clockface maintained since 1947 by the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. It uses the analogy of the human race being at a time that is a 'few minutes to midnight' where midnight represents destruction by nuclear war.
The clock was started at seven minutes to midnight during the Cold War in 1947, and has subsequently been moved forwards or backwards at intervals, depending on the state of the world and the prospects for nuclear war.
As of 2004, the clock is back at seven minutes to midnight, after recent deterioration in international relations. Each time nuclear conflict comes closer, it is moved forward, and vice versa. It has been moved 17 times.
Important events which have resulted in the changing of the clock include:
* First testing by the Soviet Union of a thermonuclear device in 1949. Clock changed to three minutes to midnight.
* United States and Soviet Union test thermonuclear devices within nine months of one another in 1953. Clock changed to two minutes to midnight.
* United States and Soviet Union sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963. Clock changed to twelve minutes to midnight.
* United States and Soviet Union sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in 1991. Clock changed to seventeen minutes to midnight.
* Little progress on nuclear disarmament in 2002. United States rejects a series of arms control treaties and announces withdrawal from Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Terrorists seek to acquire nuclear weapons. Clock changed to seven minutes to midnight.
It is expected the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will advance the clock on 17 January, 2007.
My personal take on this is as its always been. No one is stupid enough to initiate thermal nuclear destruction of the habitants of this planet. Not even Bush, although he's the most likely suspect.
(more at Boing Boing)
7 Comments:
> My personal take on this is as its always been.
I disagree. This threat is definitely increasing. And that's because technology keeps making the process easier to pull off. Any sufficiently fanatical group is not that far from setting off a small economy model nuclear device in NY. As the rate we're going, these devices will be available from Costo in a decade or so.
We've GOT to get serious on this issue. Clearly the UN is not making any headway on the problem. The UN needs to be reformed drastically. Specifically...
www.UnitedDemocraticNations.org
gary
I agree on the possibility of a one-time nuclear device. I'm saying I don't see the multiple warhead ICBMs flying between countries.
If I'm wrong, they won't have time to move that clock.
But the millions of dead people won't know the difference if it flew in on a missile or drove into town in a rental truck...
gary
My point is, countries don't send one ICBM. For instance, earlier I was reading we have 2600 ICBMs aimed at Russia. And the warheads are substantially larger than is likely to be smuggled into NY in a truck.
So the numbers of dead and the area destroyed would be much larger. And I just don't see some world leader willing to start such mutually universal destruction.
Of course, if the truck blows up someone you love, you won't be terribly concerned about the total number killed.
spiiderweb, I belive the Doomsday Clock includes nuclear attacks by terrorist, which is why I disagreed with your original statement that to me implied nothing has changed ("this is as its always been"). Did I misinterpret your original point?
gary
The key phrase in the original entry was:
midnight represents destruction by nuclear war
With Bush at the helm, you are right. Anything could set him off against most any perceived enemy of the state.
I just hope it will never come to that.
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