Preparing for failure on SURGE™

Could this be thought of as a self-fulfilling prophecy or just monumental skepticism?

Deep within the bowels of the Pentagon, policy planners are conducting secret meetings to discuss what to do in the worst-case scenario in Iraq about a year from today if and when President Bush's escalation of more than 20,000 troops fails, a participant in those discussions told me. None of those who are taking part in these exercises, shielded from the public view and the immediate scrutiny of the White House, believes that the so-called surge will succeed. On the contrary, everyone thinks it will not only fail to achieve its aims but also accelerate instability by providing a glaring example of US incapacity and incompetence.

The profoundly pessimistic thinking that permeates the senior military and the intelligence community, however, is forbidden in the sanitized atmosphere of mind-cure boosterism that surrounds Bush. "He's tried this two times - it's failed twice," speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi said on January 24 about the "surge" tactic. "I asked him at the White House, 'Mr. President, why do you think this time it's going to work?' And he said, 'Because I told them it had to.'" She repeated his words: "'I told them that they had to.' That was the end of it. That's the way it is."

Of course the SURGE™ will fail. That's precisely the reason it should be stopped before it happens. Telling the military it has to work is hardly useful. Its nothing more than wishful thinking and that's a hell of a poor way to conduct foreign policy.

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