Is surge working? US commanders hail fall in Baghdad killings

Hahaha. Just after I post about the lack of question marks in news headlines, I post one.

But much more seriously...

US military commanders in Iraq have accused insurgents of using children in suicide bombings and staging poison gas attacks in a campaign to undermine the month-old security "surge" in Baghdad and Anbar province.

The clampdown in the capital is credited with bringing a sharp reduction in civilian deaths in recent weeks, even though the number of attacks has remained fairly constant. "There are tanks and Humvees on every street corner," said an independent observer who returned from Baghdad last week. "There is a real change of atmosphere from earlier this year, before the operation began." According to David Kilcullen, senior counter-insurgency adviser to General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, heightened security has forced suicide bombers to detonate their devices at checkpoints well away from targets such as markets and other public gatherings, "killing far fewer people than intended, and far fewer than in similar attacks last year"

However, the story continues to say some of the bombs didn't explode. Which means they're still being planted and could have exploded to bring the death toll higher. My guess is, the insurgents can't train bombers to competence as fast as they're recruiting them.

Anyway, how does that fit with this story?

The Iraqi government yesterday raised its estimate of the death toll in a truck bombing in the northern town of Tal Afar on Tuesday to 152, making it the deadliest single bombing of the four-year-old war.

Both stories are from the independent.co.uk on the same day.

Sure sounds like the SURGE™ is a resounding success. They are juggling the numbers. Even if total deaths are down in Baghdad, it seems one attack elsewhere which is the most destructive to date mean things aren't working out.

Ever squeeze a balloon? Of course you can reduce the air (destruction) in one part of the balloon (Iraq), but the air just moves to another part of the balloon. You aren't gaining anything.

Everyone knows the insurgents have moved operations out of Baghdad until the heat's off. That doesn't mean they're slowing down their operations. What it means is new groups of Iraqis are now in far more danger than they were before the SURGE™.