Should We Stay Or Should We Go?

There is a fine article in the Seattle Times about the limited options available to Bush in Iraq.

The danger of a full-blown civil war — predicted 18 months ago by the CIA, but dismissed at the time by the Bush team — grows with each passing day.

(snip)

In the words of Juan Cole, a Middle East expert who blogs frequently on the war, "Iraq is a vial of nitroglycerine that can be set off with one shake."

And the American public is divided on what should happen next. That adds a huge political consideration for Republicans and Democrats alike.

In a new poll sponsored by Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg and James Carville, surveying 1,135 Americans during the last five days of February, 49 percent said they wanted to "start reducing the number of troops" (in the belief that we are impeding stability, and preventing Iraqis from standing up for themselves), while 48 percent wanted to "stay the course" and "finish the job" (in the belief that we are a positive force and a bulwark against global terrorism).

Now here is where it starts getting scary. Ex-senator Gary Hart (D) in a recent speach pointed out a major problem. My guess is it would have dire consequences.

"Our army is in danger," he said. "If all-out civil war breaks out, we could lose our army. If Sunnis and Shiites take to the streets by the thousands, it could literally be impossible to get [the soldiers] out. ... I know that sounds apocalyptic, but it's not out of the question.

"...we could lose our army." Think about that. We could lose thousands of troops quickly. If that weren't bad enough, we could lose all of our weapons and equipment. Now that military hardware is just what is needed in a country engaged in a civil war. And I haven't mentioned the huge military bases, permanent bases we have been building. It wouldn't be good for the different fighting factions to divvy up those.

With a withdrawl plan, we could get our people out in the safest possible manner. I'm not a military person. Someone else has to plan that one, but during a full-out civil war it would seem to be an impossible task. We could remove all our equipment and weapons. And, I would suggest, destroy those bases. Its becoming quite obvious to me we'll never get to use them.

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