This Is Good News

The one thing that could have hurt the Dems the most is superior turnout for the Repugs. Now it looks unlikely that'll happen.

TIME Poll: Registered Republicans Less Enthusiastic About Voting Than Democrats
The G.O.P. also faces a stark drop-off in support from evangelicals and men, according to a new survey

With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 — their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of Republican respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel that way.

Another challenge facing the GOP is a stark dropoff in support among what is usually a core constituency: white evangelical Christians. According to TIME's poll, only 54% of people in this group favor Republican candidates, with 5% undecided. Thirty-eight percent of white evangelicals polled say they'll support Democrats. In 2004, exit polls indicated that 78% of this constituency voted for Bush. While the GOP won out in the poll by seven points (42-35) as the party perceived as best equipped to protect moral values, a matter especially important to this group, the party's standing among evangelicals may have been hurt by recent Congressional scandals, which have tarnished the GOP especially. Forty one percent of registered voters said Congressional scandals were extremely or very important as voting issues this campaign.

A third factor running against the GOP is an improvement in men's attitudes towards the Democrats. Males provided much of the Bush victory margin in 2004: the President took 55% of the male vote while John Kerry won 44%, according to exit polls. For the 2006 midterms, the TIME poll suggests men are almost evenly split, with 43% supporting Republican candidates and 47% Democrats. Women in the TIME poll support Democratic candidates by a lopsided 59% to 33% for Republicans. In 2004, Kerry had just a three-point edge among females.

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