Friday, April 07, 2006

Iran Invasion Watch

Here's more anecdotal evidence an invasion is inevitable.
Key players in the Bush administration think a military confrontation with Iran is unavoidable, leading to stepped up military planning for such a prospect, according to several experts and recently departed senior government officials.


Iran, meanwhile, has also taken several public steps to suggest that it is preparing for a confrontation. Iranian officials recently announced with great fanfare that the military had tested several new weapons, including three new missiles and two new torpedoes, during maneuvers in the Persian Gulf. After Tehran successfully tested its second new torpedo, General Mohammad Ebrahim Dehghani told Iranian state television Monday that the weapon is powerful enough to "break a heavy warship" in two. The torpedo was tested in the Straits of Hormuz, a vital corridor for oil supplies.

I've posted about those tests and indicated they're playing into Bush's hands because they aren't significan't enough to deter an idiot.
According to Laurent Murawiec, a senior fellow at the conservative Hudson Institute, the Bush administration's contingency plans were being upgraded "because the diplomatic solution has lost credibility." Murawiec said that while he feared several years ago that some officials in Washington seemed to be relying on Israel to take out Iran's nuclear facilities, "I don't fear this anymore." He added that two European defense ministries were also working on military contingency plans, but declined to identify them [you can bet Blairco is one].

To be fair, the article goes on to quote other insiders who see this saber rattling as necessary to the negotiation process and they're right. Others say they don't see such invasion as inevitable. In case you don't know by now, though I'm neither insider nor expert, I read the evidence differently. The only thing I'm unsure about is whether the attack will be before or after November. Hey, I'm no Nostradamus.

(read more)


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