The NIE report on Iran

OK, I give up. Have to post about this fucking report.

NIE report on Iran (PDF).

This is all speculation from a very diseased mind, but its the best I can do.

Many are speculating about why this report was released. How about this?

Its the ultimate "whistle blower" situation. Imagine, if you will, you see Dim Son hell bent on attacking Iran which could trigger WWIII. He also would like to impel Armageddon. And most likely Armageddon is a possible result. But you aren't on board with that shit and you have a creditable report in hand that can kick his ass.

Wouldn't you release said report? Just asking.

Israel believes Iran restarted nuclear arms work

Wow! I mean, wow! I sure didn't expect Israel to react this way to the NIE report.

Update below where Israel (Omert) admits to having nuclear weapons.

Of course, this is exactly how they could be expected to react. I was being facetious in the last paragraph. The NIE report doesn't say what Israel wants to hear. They need Iran as a bogeyman and aren't about to give it up. Cheney won't either. You just watch.

But China, Russia? They might think differently. They know the capabilities of US intelligence and will probably trust it. That's what got US into Iraq in the first fucking place. Bush presented a highly politicized NIE report to the world. People believed what they were told because the NIE has a record for accuracy. That is, if left alone to give honest independent assessments.

In fact, except for the date on the report, it is probably a carbon copy of the one which would have been produced without the meddling of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld. People were told what the report should say regardless of their analysis and they should throw in words like "probably", "likely" and such instead of stating they had a high degree of confidence.

My tendency is to trust this one because the 16 intelligence agencies which came to the same conclusion are no longer fearful of Dim Son. If the heads of all 16 agencies were replaced tomorrow, its only for 12 months because the next president can reinstate them.


All emphasis (read weasel words) are mine.

Israel said on Tuesday Iran had probably restarted its nuclear weapons programme and that a U.S. intelligence report saying the work was frozen in 2003 and remained on hold was incomplete.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said the U.S. report on Monday, which came in sharp contrast to an earlier assertion that Tehran was intent on developing a bomb, did not provide a full picture of Iran's weapons programme.

"It seems Iran in 2003 halted for a certain period of time its military nuclear programme but as far as we know it has probably since renewed it," Barak told Army Radio.

...

Israel is widely believed to have the only atomic arsenal in the Middle East, although it has never confirmed or denied that.

Someone came damn close.

A retired Israeli general said Thursday Israel is no longer trying to convince anyone that it has no nuclear arsenal.

You want close? How about an explicit comment from Olmert?

In a German TV interview aired Monday, Olmert said: "Iran, openly, explicitly and publicly threatens to wipe Israel off the map. Can you say that this is the same level, when they are aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel, Russia?

Goddamn it, I didn't intend to post about the NIE because everyone has and then Israel forced my hand.

Via Reuters.

U.S. intelligence report says Iraq perilous

I have no reason to doubt the new NIE report is correct. Although I believe they should have addressed the issue of civil war in Iraq.

The situation in Iraq is perilous, with Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence surpassing al Qaeda as the most immediate threat to U.S. goals, according to a long-awaited intelligence report, The Washington Post reported on Friday.

The 90-page document came to no conclusion over whether the conflict in Iraq has become a civil war, but the authors expressed uncertainly over whether Iraqi leaders would be able to transcend the sectarian divide to fight extremism and establish functioning national institutions, the Post reported.

Iran, which the White House has accused of fuelling the bloodshed, is mentioned in the document -- the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq -- but it does not focus on Iran, the Post said.

Of course they don't really have a great track record, do they? Just asking.

The 2002 estimate said Iraq had arsenals of chemical and biological weapons -- a claim that proved to be false after the United States invaded Iraq in 2003.

(read more)